Saturday Morning Covfefe: Five Things That Matter

Context over chaos. Every Saturday.

This is the first Covfefe of 2026. Before the headlines, a quick thank you to my paid subscribers and everyone who shows up here by reading, sharing, or replying. This isn’t a drive-by news roundup. It’s a community built on context, memory, and calling things what they are. That work matters now more than ever.

Let’s get into it.

1. Jack Smith Said It Plainly: Trump Caused January 6

Five years later, the record isn’t ambiguous, and it isn’t debatable.

In sworn testimony to Congress, Jack Smith laid out what many Americans watched unfold in real time: Donald Trump’s lies didn’t just precede January 6. They caused it.

Smith didn’t hedge. He described a direct chain of events, knowingly false claims of election fraud, deliberately amplified, aimed at stopping the peaceful transfer of power. The violence wasn’t spontaneous. It was foreseeable.

This matters because the revisionism is louder than ever. We’re told January 6 was “overblown,” that Trump didn’t mean it, that it just…happened. Smith’s testimony cuts through that fog. Intent matters. Causation matters. Accountability still matters.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth for 2026 and beyond: Trump is back in office. Many of the same enablers remain in power. The lies didn’t fade, they hardened.

🚨 Receipts, Not Revisionism: Jack Smith’s House Judiciary deposition on January 6

2. From Clickbait to Crackdowns: How a Known Misinformation Peddler Caused Real Harm

This didn’t start in Minnesota, and it wasn’t accidental.

The far-right YouTuber Nick Shirley followed a familiar playbook: stage outrage, provoke confrontation, and launder misinformation into virality. He’s done this for years, recycling debunked anti-immigrant claims and targeting Somali and Muslim communities. He was even invited to a Trump-era “Roundtable on Antifa,” where influencers were treated as evidence-gatherers instead of agitators.

That context matters.

So when Shirley pushed a viral video falsely implying Somali-run child care centers were engaged in mass fraud, the damage was immediate: vandalism, break-ins, death threats, terrified families, and kids too scared to attend day care.

Then came the policy fallout. DHS announced expanded “fraud” visits, refused to rule out immigration enforcement, and froze child care assistance—jeopardizing care for 23,000 families and 4,000 providers, none charged with fraud.

Minnesota’s attorney general called it a “scorched-earth attack.”

This is the pattern:
Misinformation → amplification → institutional overreaction → collective punishment.

That’s the real scandal.

🧨 When Clickbait Becomes Policy: The Intercept

3. The Supreme Court Is About to Decide Who Holds Power in America

This is not a sleepy court term. It’s a power one. In 2026, the Supreme Court isn’t just interpreting the law, it’s deciding how much power one president can claim, and how few guardrails remain.

At the center: birthright citizenship. In Trump v. Barbara, the Court will decide whether a president can unilaterally deny citizenship to U.S.-born children. Every lower court blocked the order. If the Supreme Court upholds it, citizenship shifts from a constitutional right to an executive decision.

That’s not isolated. The Court is also weighing:

• Rule-by-emergency tariffs without Congress

• Presidential control over independent agencies

• Civil rights, voting access, campaign finance, gun laws—many landing just before the midterms

The throughline is simple: who decides.

By July, the Court won’t just issue opinions. It will lock in the rules of power heading into 2026 and beyond.

⚖️ This Isn’t a Court Term. It’s a Power Test.: Axios

4. China Rehearsed a Blockade, and Venezuela Shows the Other Front

China just ran its largest-ever military exercise around Taiwan, and this wasn’t routine saber-rattling. It was a blockade rehearsal. The drills encircled the island, moved closer than ever before, and simulated cutting Taiwan off from the outside world. Warships, fighter jets, coast guard units, and—crucially—civilian vessels were all involved. That’s how real-world coercion works. Beijing even showcased drones and automated weapons, signaling what future conflict is meant to look like.

Flights were disrupted. Ports tensed. Taiwan went on high alert. This was China’s sixth major drill since 2022—each one bigger, closer, and more complex than the last.

That trajectory is the warning.

And while Taiwan is a visible flashpoint, it’s not the only place power is being tested without a clear political horizon.

Venezuela is the other front, and it’s escalating fast.

Over the past few months, Trump quietly surged U.S. military power into the Caribbean: an aircraft carrier, multiple warships, scores of aircraft, and roughly 15,000 troops. Until now, it was framed as “drug interdiction,” despite Venezuela not being a meaningful driver of the fentanyl crisis in the U.S.

Then came the escalation.

Trump didn’t just authorize strikes. He publicly framed them as having “captured” Nicolás Maduro—without congressional approval, without a clear legal basis, and without explaining what comes next. Force first. Explanation later.

Maduro is brutal and repressive. That’s not in dispute. But history is unforgiving on this point: attempting to remove even the worst regimes by force often makes things worse. Afghanistan. Iraq. Libya.

And yes–Panama, 1989.

The U.S. invaded, seized Manuel Noriega, declared success, and moved on. What followed was years of instability, cleanup, and unresolved questions about who owned the aftermath. The operation was decisive. The planning lagged. Panama worked partly because it was small, tied to U.S. interests through the Canal, and already deeply penetrated by American institutions. Venezuela is none of those things.

What’s most alarming now is the absence of an endgame, or even a public explanation. Trump hasn’t gone to Congress. He hasn’t articulated a post-Maduro plan. Instead, the administration is stretching a dangerous logic: labeling foreign leaders “narco-terrorists” to treat war like law enforcement.

I was in the room during Trump 1.0 when “maximum pressure” was sold as strategy. It wasn’t. Pressure without a plan didn’t deliver change then, and escalation without clarity raises the stakes now.

And it doesn’t stop at Venezuela.

Trump’s own National Security Strategy calls for reasserting U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. He’s openly threatened the Panama Canal. His allies talk casually about Cuba. When coercion becomes policy without guardrails, the question isn’t whether the last strike “worked.” It’s who’s next, and who decides.

Different theaters. Same posture. Power asserted first. Strategy explained later. That’s how precedent hardens. And that’s how conflict stops being hypothetical.

🌏 China Just Practiced Cutting Taiwan Off From the World: Reuters; Venezuela Strike and Maduro “Captured”: CNN

5. The Midterms Are Here, Buckle Up!

It’s January, and the midterms are no longer theoretical.

After a brutal 2024, Democrats are rebuilding momentum, and 2026 is shaping up as the first real referendum on Trump’s second term and unified Republican control.

The epicenter: Pennsylvania. Trump flipped it in 2024. But in 2025, with Trump off the ballot, Democrats surged—winning local races, holding the state Supreme Court, and breaking through in Trump-won counties.

Nationally:

• All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are up

• GOP majorities are razor-thin

• Toss-ups could decide Congress

Cracks are already showing. In Kentucky, Rep. Thomas Massie has become a loyalty test for Trump’s grip on the party. And so much for the “America Party”. Remember this?

After trashing both sides, Elon Musk is now all-in financing Republicans for 2026. When power’s on the line, the billionaire rebellion ends fast.

This won’t just be about Trump. Voters are reacting to governance: tariffs, economic whiplash, shrinking agencies, culture-war policymaking. Results actually matter.

🗳️ Election Watch 2026: Time

🎓 One Thing for Your Soul

Twenty years ago, a public high school quietly stepped in for a student in trouble. No speeches. No branding. Just people doing the right thing. Sonia Lewis carried that moment with her, and in 2025, she came back, not to talk about hustle, but to lift a burden for hundreds of students standing where she once stood. She gave more than money. She gave time, breathing room, and proof that being seen once can change everything.

As 2026 begins, remember this: the world doesn’t only move through power or headlines. Sometimes it moves through memory. The full circle isn’t flashy. It’s faithful.

So here’s the thing for your soul this week: Notice someone. Lift where you can. And remember: what you do now may carry farther than you’ll ever know. Someday, it might even come all the way back.

🔁 When a School Believed in Her, and She Never Forgot

I’m excited to see some of you in person on January 6th with Jim Acosta. We’re close to selling out: Tickets Here! We’ll be sure to post and share for those joining from afar.

Happy New Year from me, and these party animals!

-Olivia