T.A.C.O. Diplomacy 2.0: Trump’s Putin Pivot, Up Close

Distraction theater, Kremlin edition

I’ve sat in enough Situation-Room briefings to see Donald Trump’s pattern: Tweet, Announce, Change the channel, Order a new storyline, a cycle I now call T.A.C.O. diplomacy with a dash of truth social. His latest pivot on Vladimir Putin exhibits this prominently: one day, “I can cut a peace deal in 24 hours,” later he’s urging Kyiv to make Moscow “feel the pain.” Yes, there's the 'Trump Always Chickens Out' version that inevitably prompts me to bring the Taco hat into the chat, but don't worry, tariffs are also part of this evolving conversation.

On July 4, during a private call with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump reportedly asked point-blank: "Can you hit Moscow?...St Petersburg too?" if the U.S. supplied longer-range weapons. Zelenskyy replied, "Absolutely, if you give us the weapons." The request followed a call Trump had with Putin the day before, after which he expressed that no progress had been made. It appears that Trump’s patience snapped after yet another round of “pleasant” talks with Putin was followed by fresh missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, something Melania Trump was quick to point out. Trump told reporters she’d quipped, “Really? Another city was just hit.” That side-eye from the East Wing helped shove the Kremlin off its pedestal.

Kyiv read the room, too. At the June NATO summit, Zelenskyy ditched the fatigues for a black suit jacket, “visual diplomacy” aimed at Trump’s vanity after February’s Oval Office clothing spat. Sometimes, if you play the game back with Trump, something will come of it. Trump's latest plan this week is to send Patriot batteries and precision missiles to Ukraine, paid for by European NATO allies, who will later replenish their stocks through U.S. purchases. The details of the actual plan and how this will all work are still unclear. He paired that with a 50-day ultimatum and the threat of 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries still buying Russian goods and oil, a measure that Russia scoffed at, and so did the markets, showing that the President's T.A.C.O. reputation precedes him.

Cue the predictable backlash. The MAGA movement (in between breaks from their anger on the ongoing Epstein list saga) is not happy with Trump’s change of heart on Ukraine. U.S. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene blasted the weapons package as “foreign aid that does NOT help Americans afford housing, bills, or insurance,” pledging to stay “AMERICA FIRST!!!” on social media. Steve Bannon echoed the gripe on his podcast, warning that Trump is about to “arm people we have no control over.” Their math ignores a crucial detail: European governments are footing the bill this time. 

Here’s the reality: Putin isn’t going to lose sleep over tariffs alone, given Russia’s lifelines—China, India, and Turkey—which already import roughly four million barrels a day of discounted Russian crude outside the Western price cap. Trump’s tariff threat will likely reroute shipments and nudge global prices up, but exerting pressure on other major buyers such as Brazil, which depends on Russian fertilizer for its soybean, coffee, and sugar exports, could squeeze the Kremlin’s war chest and perhaps bring Putin to the table more seriously than the months of puppetry and semantics we’ve seen so far.

In other relevant news, an American missionary-turned-spy, Daniel Martindale, who spent two years funneling GPS coordinates of Ukrainian troop positions to Russian forces, has just been handed Russian citizenship by presidential decree, with Kremlin cameras rolling as Vladimir Putin personally rewarded him by presenting him his new passport in Moscow. The Kremlin broadcast the ceremony, turning a U.S. defector into a living billboard. Translation: We’re still recruiting Westerners and rewarding them.

Longtime national security expert (inside scoop–we used to work together early in our careers) Brett McGurk has framed Trump’s pivot as a stark choice: pull out and let Moscow dictate terms, or “be the bigger bear” by backing diplomacy with real consequences. Trump has finally chosen door number two, but leverage without follow-through is just a louder dance partner. I’ve warned for years that Trump’s dictator crushes are endless and that his transactional, revenge-driven instincts always pull him toward abandoning Ukraine.

Tariff theatrics are a marketing ploy, not a strategy. If we want real leverage, we have to choke the shadow flows of Russian energy, synchronize sanctions with Europe and Asia, and move precision artillery to Ukraine fast enough to silence Russian guns. This means you, Pete Hegseth–quit the backdoor antics and hold on weapons to Ukraine. Until those pieces lock in, Trump’s latest T.A.C.O. stunt is just a splashy headline meant to bury the Epstein-list uproar, served on an empty plate. Vladimir Putin can taste the hollowness a continent away.

P.S. I have some great live conversations coming up, and I'm excited to share them with you!

-Olivia