Saturday Morning Covfefe: 5 Reality Checks

From your checkout receipt to the Munich Security Conference.

In case you blinked: tariffs, chaos, climate rollbacks, drug pricing theater, and Munich questioning the Western order.

Totally normal week…

1. Americans Are Paying the Tariff Bill. Not China.

The White House keeps saying foreign countries are “eating” the tariffs.
(Apparently everyone’s eating—except us.)

The data says otherwise. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyzed import data through November 2025. Their finding: Nearly 90% of the tariff burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers. From January to August, it was even higher: 94%.

Here’s what that means in plain English: When tariffs jumped from 2.6% to 13% last year, foreign exporters barely lowered their prices. So the cost didn’t disappear. It passed through.

To American importers.
To small businesses.
To consumers at the checkout.

By November, even after some renegotiation, 86% of the cost was still landing here. The math is straightforward: A 13% average tariff translates into roughly an 11% increase in import prices on affected goods.

This isn’t partisan. It’s arithmetic.

Yes, supply chains are shifting. China’s share of U.S. imports has fallen sharply, with Mexico and Vietnam picking up ground. But shifting suppliers doesn’t eliminate the tax. It just reroutes it. We ran this experiment in 2018–2019. The same economists found 100% pass-through then. We’re running it again.

Tariffs are taxes, and Americans are paying them.

🧾💸 Who’s Really Paying for the Tariffs: The Fed

2. The Violence Isn’t Fitting Old Labels Anymore

We’re seeing a wave of high-profile killings. School shootings. A power grid plot. An IVF clinic bombing. Targeted assassinations.

And Investigators keep running into the same problem, the attackers don’t fit the usual boxes. Not left. Not right. Not Islamist. Not white supremacist. Federal prosecutors are now using a new term: “Nihilistic violent extremism.”

Translation: violence driven by hatred of society itself, and a desire to accelerate collapse.

Some left manifestos titled “War Against Humanity.” One wrote: “The message is there is no message.” Another argued that an assassination would “bring chaos” and help bring down the system. This isn’t about electing someone. It’s about burning everything down.

Researchers tracking attacks from mid-2024 through 2025 found a subset motivated less by ideology and more by:

• Online grievance culture

• Admiration of past killers

• A craving for notoriety

• Easy access to tactics via YouTube and Artificial Intelligence

There’s no real organization. No structured movement. It’s rage + reach.

Experts warn we shouldn’t erase traditional hate ideologies that still exist. They’re right. But the threat landscape is constantly evolving, and what we’re seeing now looks different: alienation amplified by algorithms, grievance scaled by reach. When national rhetoric grows more aggressive, unstable actors sometimes interpret it as permission.

⚠️ The Rise of “Nihilistic Violent Extremism”: WaPo

3. TrumpRx: Big Announcement. Small Disruption

Healthcare costs remain one of the biggest pressures on American families. Prescription drugs sit at the center of that frustration. Enter TrumpRx–the administration’s new direct-to-patient drug purchasing platform.

The pitch: bypass pharmacy middlemen, secure “most favored nation” pricing, and drive down costs. And in some cases, it helps.

Ozempic, for example, is listed at around $350–far below its $1,000+ list price. Some GLP-1 and IVF drugs excluded by private insurance are included on the platform. That matters for certain patients.

But let’s zoom out.

TrumpRx currently lists 43 drugs out of roughly 20,000 FDA-approved medications. Many are already available cheaper as generics elsewhere.
Some major blockbuster drugs aren’t included at all. And critically, purchases through TrumpRx typically don’t count toward insurance deductibles or out-of-pocket maximums. Read that again.

For Medicare beneficiaries, who now have capped annual drug spending, the platform often offers little advantage. Meanwhile, manufacturers raised prices on hundreds of brand-name drugs at the start of 2026, even as TrumpRx launched.

So what is this?

It represents a real shift: the government moving from passive purchaser to active market participant in drug pricing. But structurally, it operates alongside the existing rebate-driven system, not in place of it. That means most Americans won’t see a dramatic change at the pharmacy counter.

For a subset of patients? Relief. For the broader system? Limited disruption.

The reality remains that healthcare affordability remains unresolved, and families are still waiting for the breakthrough.

💊 TrumpRx Helps, But Less Than Advertised: Jeff Sonnenfeld, Fortune

4. Munich Feels Like a Fork in the Road for the West

The 62nd Munich Security Conference opens under a stark warning: The international order is “under destruction.” The Munich Security Report describes an era of “wrecking-ball politics,” sweeping demolition replacing careful reform. At the center of that disruption: the United States.

More than 80 years after helping build the post-1945 order, Washington is openly challenging core pillars—from NATO burden-sharing to trade rules to development institutions.

The Council on Foreign Relations President calls Munich a fork in the road: One path: a recalibrated NATO, with Europe building real defense capacity and sustaining a leaner but durable partnership with the U.S. The other: escalating transatlantic infighting that risks an outright strategic divorce.

Ukraine sits at the center of this moment. As Russia regains tactical initiative and intensifies hybrid pressure, Europe questions the reliability of American guarantees. Washington signals conditionality. Europe talks of “strategic autonomy.” But autonomy requires hard trade-offs: defense mobilization, deeper fiscal integration, industrial coordination, and a more assertive German military. Meanwhile, Indo-Pacific allies watch closely. If NATO can be renegotiated, so can security guarantees elsewhere.

More than 60 heads of state are in Munich this week.

Here’s why Americans should care:

Alliances are force multipliers. They lower the cost of deterrence, expand intelligence sharing, stabilize trade routes, and prevent wars that would otherwise demand U.S. blood and treasure. If the transatlantic relationship fractures, the financial, military, and economic burden shifts back onto American shoulders.

Munich may not decide it, but it will clarify the trajectory.

🌍 Munich Security Report

5. Drama Is Not a Homeland Security Strategy

I served at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). I know the caliber of career professionals who quietly protect this country every day. They deserve serious leadership, not spectacle. The latest reporting paints a picture entirely different.

A Coast Guard pilot reportedly fired because Secretary Kristi Noem’s blanket wasn’t transferred to a second plane. Senior officials berated. Polygraphs deployed. Contracts stalled. Border wall costs rising as approvals sit. Leadership rivalries playing out like campaign politics.

And hovering over it all: Corey Lewandowski. Not Senate-confirmed. Not a career operator. A “special government employee” with outsized authority—reportedly directing personnel, contracts, even seeking a badge and firearm.

DHS is not a campaign stage. It’s a $100+ billion department responsible for border security, counterterrorism, FEMA disaster response, Coast Guard operations, and cyber defense. When leadership becomes performative, institutions destabilize.

The White House has now moved to wind down high-profile operations in Minnesota. Border czar Tom Homan has stepped in. That alone tells you something.

Overreach is one concern. Incompetence is another. Right now we have both.

Security institutions require discipline. Not drama. When chaos replaces competence at the top, it doesn’t just hurt morale. It weakens the mission.

🎭 DHS Chaos: Wall Street Journal

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💛 One Thing For Your Soul

In the Twin Cities, Juan Leon noticed something strange: cars sitting abandoned for days. The owners hadn’t forgotten them. They’d been taken by ICE.

So, he stepped in. Leon and his small crew at Leo’s Towing began returning those vehicles to families, free of charge. Quietly. Discreetly. Sometimes 24/7.

Since December, they’ve delivered more than 250 cars back to doorsteps. They’ve also received death threats. And they keep going. “Sad isn’t even the word,” one crew member said. “It’s so much stronger than that.”

This isn’t about politics. It’s about neighbors deciding to be human.

🚛 Compassion, One Tow at a Time: CBS Minnesota

I’ve been tracking the Monks’ Walk for Peace for months. Their journey ended in D.C. this week, and I met them in Alexandria, Virginia as they arrived at the doorstep of our nation’s capital. It was a deeply moving day, filled with quiet strength and simple life advice we probably all need right now. Thank you to everyone who joined my live. In case you missed it, here’s a highlight reel of this very moving day.

And because it’s Valentine’s Day: Call someone you love. Check in on someone who needs it. Protect your heart—and your democracy. Both require attention.

Happy Valentine’s Day! 💌

Sending you love across the miles,

Olivia