We’re at War with Iran, Whether Trump Admits It or Not

Missiles are flying. The region is on edge. And there’s no adult at the table.

You don’t normally hear from me outside of my regular publishing schedule. I try not to flood your inbox, especially with so many great voices out there. But this moment felt different. I needed to share a few thoughts...

Donald Trump promised to be the peacemaker. No new wars. But this week, the United States crossed a line that every prior administration, Republican and Democrat, deliberately avoided. Not because they were “dumb Presidents,” as JD Vance claimed, but because they understood the gravity of war and the complexity of the Middle East.

Now, the U.S. has bombed Iranian nuclear sites. The world is bracing for what comes next.

Yes, Iran has been hiding undeclared nuclear material. That’s deeply concerning. But there's no official assessment of an imminent threat to the U.S., and no proof that we delivered a blow to their actual program other than scaring them and hitting them in the ego. Time will tell what we actually accomplished, other than guaranteeing a response.

National security experts have long noted you can damage a facility or even kill scientists, but you can’t bomb away technical knowledge. Iran knows how to enrich uranium. And with every failed diplomatic effort, that knowledge becomes more dangerous.

The stakes just got higher.

Iran is now threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil flows. This isn’t just military retaliation. It’s economic warfare. It reminds the world that Iran doesn’t need a bomb to cause global disruption.

But this moment didn’t come out of nowhere. Trump pulled us out of the Iran nuclear agreement when it was working. Iran was in compliance, confirmed by U.S. intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But Trump scrapped it anyway. Not because it failed, but because it was Obama’s.

Even with years of global consensus and slow-built diplomacy, Trump acts on impulse. He undermines strategy, destabilizes alliances, and sabotages follow-through. He claims he wants peace yet repeatedly pulls stunts that make it impossible.

We’ve seen this before:

• Tweeting a troop withdrawal from Syria, blindsiding the Pentagon and allies on the ground.

• Planning a Taliban meeting at Camp David on 9/11 week—without properly consulting the intelligence community.

• Overruling his intelligence community on Russia, North Korea, and Iran—always claiming to “know better.”

And he’s ignoring and overriding them again.

Here’s the genuine concern: Iran may now decide the only actual deterrent is to actually build a bomb. Trump may have just accelerated what he claimed to prevent. Iran is boxed in; retaliate, and they’re branded irrational; don’t retaliate, and they look weak. Either way, escalation is baked in.

I've seen how these decisions unfold from my time inside the White House Situation Room. I’ve also seen what happens when diplomacy is removed, when trust collapses, and when we’re left managing war without an off-ramp.

Full disclosure: I used to be a war hawk. I believed in preemption and force as deterrence. But nearly two decades in national security changed that. I’ve seen how intelligence can be wrong, or even worse, manipulated. I’ve also seen how wars don’t end cleanly. The aftermath can be far worse than the first strike.

What keeps me up at night are the ripple effects: retaliation, proxy attacks, economic fallout, and the vulnerability of our forces overseas.

This isn’t a faraway fight. The U.S. maintains military facilities at nineteen sites, including eight permanent ones, in countries like Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, and Qatar. We also operate critical bases in Djibouti and Turkey. I’ve had the privilege of visiting almost all of them, and it hurts to think of the tens of thousands of American service members who are now at risk.

Iran plays the long game. They don’t always strike back immediately. They calculate. They work through proxies. But they do respond, whether via Hezbollah, the Houthis, or by closing the Strait.

And now, we’ve put ourselves in the middle of it, without a clear exit strategy, without strong civilian leadership, and with hollowed-out institutions.

JD Vance says we’re “not at war with Iran, just their nuclear program.” Tell that to Tehran. Their response won’t be surgical. It will be strategic. And likely lethal.

This isn’t containment. It’s conflict. No amount of branding can disguise that.

Furthermore, Americans oppose these strikes, especially without a plan or evidence of imminent threat. But Trump doesn’t govern with strategy. He governs for applause.

Some now claim this is a moment of “nonpartisan unity.” That doubting this move means you’re playing politics.

No. Trump made it partisan. He didn’t consult Congress. He didn’t brief leadership. He didn’t speak to the American people through our representatives.

Those of us raising serious, informed concerns aren’t doing it out of ideology. We’re doing it out of reality. This isn’t theoretical. This is a real-world risk, managed by a White House staffed with nothing but loyalists on the National Security Council, and 22-year-olds sitting at the Department of Homeland Security who’ve never set foot in a crisis room.

Is Trump seeking regime change?

Maybe. Maybe not. He floats it one day and denies it the next. But this is how he governs–by Truth Social.

He recently posted:

“It’s not politically correct to use the term ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

MIGA? Really?!

This isn’t strategy. It’s catchphrase governance. While American troops brace for retaliation, Trump is spitballing slogans. A friend of mine is home right now, terrified for her son, a Navy submariner on deployment. These aren’t hypothetical consequences. They’re personal.

And if this was supposed to be a “surgical” strike, that window is closing fast. Economic blowback is coming. Rhetoric is escalating. Netanyahu got what he’s wanted for years: an American president to bomb Iran. Maybe there is, in fact, a strategic opening here to weaken the so-called “axis of evil,” to fracture dangerous alliances, and to reset the balance in the region. But seizing that kind of opportunity requires discipline, foresight, and credibility. None of which this administration has demonstrated.

Yes, Iran is the threat. 

But what happens next depends entirely on how this moment is handled and by whom. What concerns me most is the leadership now steering the course in both Israel and the United States. When two men driven by ego and political survival are calling the shots, the risk of miscalculation skyrockets. The rest of the region is watching closely, not just to see how Iran responds, but to decide where they stand and who they trust. That calculation could define the next phase of this conflict.

David Frum summed it up well: “Even a good decision executed by the wrong people is a disaster waiting to happen.” That was my immediate reaction when I heard the news. And if you think this was the right call, like some of my former CIA colleagues do, I’m not disputing the goal. Iran should never have nuclear capabilities. But ask yourself: who is managing the fallout? The answer is chilling.

So, who leads us through what comes next?That’s not rhetorical. Because Iran will retaliate, and when they do, will we be ready?

Final Thoughts:Take out some cash. Fill your gas tank. Keep your EV charged. Update your cybersecurity posture. The Department of Homeland Security issued a threat advisory warning that cyberattacks are likely. I urge you to take it seriously. Check-in on military friends and family. The threat level around them just spiked.

What to Watch For Next

1. Iran’s Response: When and How

• Cyberattacks, proxy strikes, assaults on U.S. personnel or embassies

• Possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz

• Delayed retaliation that’s harder to predict

2. Oil Prices and Economic Fallout

• Oil price spikes = domestic political blowback

• U.S. gas prices could rise fast

3. Trump’s Next Move

• Escalation or distraction?

• Truth Social rhetoric vs. actual strategy

4. Regional Dominoes

• Israel: More strikes ahead?

• Gulf States: Will they distance or double down?

• Iraq: Are U.S. troops now targets?

5. U.S. Political and Global Reactions

• Will Congress act under the War Powers Act?

• Will NATO or the EU back us or not?

This situation continues to evolve. Developments may shift, but the trajectory, the risks, and the leadership void at the center of it all remain.

P.S. Whoever named this “Operation Midnight Hammer”—congrats on subtly trolling the Secretary of Defense. The Operation Hammered memes have already started. Also, don’t lose track of the “Big Beautiful Bill” that’s likely to pass the Senate this week.

More soon,

Olivia