Zelenskyy, Trump, and the NATO Mirage

Trump offered 'NATO-like' guarantees, poker chips in a war Ukraine can’t risk.

Donald Trump walked out of yesterday’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy bragging that he’d made "progress." The catch? He did it without requiring a ceasefire. That’s not quite diplomacy. That’s performance.

Trump tossed out the idea of "NATO-like" security guarantees and even mused about "possible exchanges of territory." Think about that: the U.S. president suggesting that Ukraine give up pieces of its land like poker chips. I warned that this would be Trump’s course of action in giving Putin what he wants.

Floating land-for-peace isn’t tough talk. It’s dangerous. By putting Donbas or Crimea on the table, Trump:

• Undercuts Zelenskyy’s leverage.

• Signals to Putin that U.S. support is negotiable.

• Splits NATO and EU allies into compromisers vs. defenders.

That’s the play. Not to end the war, but to fracture the alliance and reset the debate on Putin’s terms. As a reminder, I have also warned (even throughout the 2024 election cycle) that we should not forget that Trump has threatened to withdraw from NATO along the way.

Here’s the tell: Ukraine’s constitution makes territorial swaps illegal without a national referendum. Which means Trump isn’t offering a real solution; he’s offering yet another headline.

Here’s what those swaps would mean in practice:

• Normalizing territorial bargaining as “progress” risks fracturing alliances and rewarding Putin’s aggression.

• Forced transfers would uproot hundreds of thousands and echo Europe’s darkest wartime displacements.

Every serious peace process starts with a ceasefire. Trump’s refusal to insist on one wasn’t a slip; it was the point. Skip the ceasefire, skip the accountability, and head straight to the photo op. That’s how you turn war into theater: global diplomacy, "Apprentice" style, with life-and-death consequences.

The real ballast in the room wasn’t Trump or Zelenskyy, it was Europe. Leaders like Macron and Merz showed up to make sure this didn’t tip into outright concessions. If the U.S. tilts toward rewarding conquest, Europe is signaling it will hold the line on sovereignty.

While yesterday’s meeting may have felt lighter than the disastrous February encounter, with Trump complimenting Zelenskyy’s suit and officials describing a "happy family" vibe, the reality is starker. Putin is still setting the terms, Trump’s guarantees are deliberately vague, and Europe is left doing the heavy lifting. Vibes don’t stop missiles, and suits don’t stop tanks.

The rumblings have already started across Trump’s base. Steve Bannon is railing that U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine aren’t a win for America. Furthermore, the idea of sending U.S. troops into Ukraine as part of any peacekeeping mission is a nonstarter for a Congress tired of writing checks and a MAGA movement allergic to foreign commitments. Anyone else notice the crickets from Republicans on the Hill after yesterday’s meeting?

Trump’s Land-Grab Brain

This isn’t a one-off. Trump’s brain has always worked in terms of land deals:

• He has repeatedly attempted and threatened to buy Greenland and wouldn’t rule out the use of  force.

• He has said "we’re taking back" the Panama Canal.

• He mused about Canada as the "51st state" and used tariffs like battering rams to make the point.

To him, borders are negotiable. Sovereignty is real estate. And war is just another bargaining chip. Before turning to Trump’s talk of "NATO-like" guarantees, it’s worth grounding in what the real thing actually means.

🔎 What Article 5 Really Means

Article 5 of the NATO treaty is the heart of the alliance. It states: an attack on one is an attack on all. That promise is why Putin hasn’t rolled tanks into Estonia or Poland. He knows he wouldn’t just be fighting one country, he’d be fighting 31.

It has only been formally invoked once in NATO history: after 9/11, when allies rushed to defend the United States. So when Trump talks about offering Ukraine "NATO-like" guarantees, understand what that really means: not NATO. No binding treaty. No automatic defense. Just a handshake deal he can walk away from the minute it gets inconvenient.

For Putin, land is power. For Trump, land is theater. For Ukrainians, land is life. And that’s the difference. This summit didn’t bring peace closer. It was a significant step towards normalizing the idea that borders are negotiable. And once you do that in Ukraine, you open the door for the Baltic states, Taiwan, and maybe the South China Sea…

The war over Ukraine didn’t end today. The war over what sovereignty even means just began.

Until next time,

Olivia